Tài liệu tham khảo - Dự báo thủy văn biểnScience and Technology
The Text－book “Marine hydrological prognoses” is intended for supplying students －oceanographers with the basic knowledges on the concepts and principles of the formation of prognoses for different parameters of hydrological regime of the seas and oceans.
The introduction and chapter 1 point out the main duties and the importance of the hydrological information services to the economical activities, outline the data sources from which oceanographer can collect when forming information service materials and making prognoses. Here described also the content and features of each type of data sources in the sense of making use of data for the formation of forecasting methods.
Chapter 2 presents the physical principles and common methods of creation of forecasting models. The procedure of regression analysis as leading tool in obtaining prognosis equations is delt with in detail. The last part of the chapter 2 describs the ways to estimate the quality of prognosis methods.
As a large number of prognosis schemes for marine hydrological paraneters is based on the atmosphere－ocean interaction, chapters 3 to 4 describe the methods of taking into account the atmospheric circulation, the feature of the air pressure fields, the wind fields and the components of heat balances.
Chapters 5 to 8 are delivered to review of concrete methods widely used for forecasting dynamical parameters and the water temperature.
Some examples of long－term prognoses and the hypotheses and findings by famous scientists on the oscillation changes of atmosphere－ocean system as the basis of superlong－term forecasting are presented in chapter 9.
This text－book was prepared based on the text－book of the same name by K. I. Kydriavaia, E. I. Seriakov and L. I. Scriptunova (1974) and the handbook “Guide to the marine hydrological prognoses” (1994) by Hydrometeorological research institute of Russian Federation.